It's that time again. Those of you who were around right beforethe Burning Crusade release might remember this time -- there are no new content patches before the next expansion, and we've got pretty much nothing to look forward to and nowhere to go before Wrath shows up and changes the world for good. Yes, there is a little more yet to discover at the Sunwell, but once we've seen that instance cleared out (Blizzard originally predicted about a month, and it seems like some players might be moving even faster than that), there'll be nothing left but the waiting.
Things went pretty badly last time around -- guilds stopped raiding (what was the point, when the next expansion would replace all of our gear with greens?), players abandoned the game for a while, and there was a general depression in Azeroth. While people were excited for the expansion, the live realms seemed like yesterday's news.
Hopefully things will be better this time around -- back then, we didn't have dailies to do, there weren't any arena matches or tournaments, and the 40 man high-end raid instances were pretty much the only game in town (nowadays we have 10mans, 25mans, or Heroics, and lots of rewards from each). And depending on when Blizzard gets the expansion out, the wait might not be as bad (although if they wait until January again, the time frame should be about the same as last time). But get ready -- the calm before the storm is coming, and we won't see a new game again until we step foot on the icy shores of Northrend.
Probably not. But if you did guess March 25th as the date patch 2.4 was released you might have an email from our own Elizabeth Harper in your inbox in the next few days. So how did you all get to guess March 25th as the magical date?
Some of you might have just pulled the date out of a hat. I can't really blame you if you did, since Blizzard has been notorious for releasing things "when they're ready." WoWWiki even has a page for the often-quoted blue response to people asking when the patch will be released: "soon."
Of course, if you took my route, you would have hunkered down and done some good old math and figured out that the trend was leading towards a March 25th release date. I was, ahem, right. /dance /cheer /drinkaglassofcelebratorywine
Now of course the real test of any mathematical prediction is to see if it holds up over time. When the next patch is announced (if there is one), we'll take another mathematical look at the numbers and try to predict when that patch will go live.
All in all, it was quite a fun little contest. Many thanks to the over 900 of you who entered. Check your mailboxes, you might have won!
For those wondering, the image is the "I Win" button they'll be putting in patch 2.5.We know this is going to happen because of all the nerfs in 2.4... (I'm kidding, but flame away.)
Patch 2.4 draws closer every day.Many players were speculating that it was going to be released yesterday (March 18, 2008).Blizzard has promised that the patch is coming soon and the background downloader has appeared. My best guest is that we'll be visiting Sunwell Isle on March 25, 2008.
The day that patch 2.3 was released I attempted to rush home from work to check out the new changes, but was thwarted by cross-town traffic.There are some things that I'm excited about for in the newest patch, but I'm not nearly as stoked as I was for the last major update.I try to keep in mind that what we've seen so far on the Public Test Realm is not the final product for the patch, but it gives us a pretty good indication of what's coming.
Hortus, the spinning whirly jig wearing gnome, announced on the forms today that the PTR will be closed until further notice. This closure is in order to encourage more people to test out the TTR, which will remain open for the time being.
Secondly, we can infer that the two stress tests they've held might not have been everything they wanted. If they're asking for more testing we can make an educated guess that Blizzard either did not see the kind of numbers they were hoping for, or they have made additional server changes that warrant additional tests. Judging from the lack luster stress test that went on Wednesday night, I'm leaning towards the former as being the reason for the change.
A few days ago we tried to estimate how much Blizzard was making from those 10 million accounts, but now we know for sure: it's actually around $1.2 billion (which is up 58% from 2006). Now, you can probably see that that's only $500 million short of the estimate that we were trying to prove was wrong, but don't forget that the $1.2 billion isn't just subscription fees-- it includes all those sales of Burning Crusade last year at full release price. What Blizzard earns from subscription fees is just part of that total.
Still, a $1.5 billion year for Vivendi (especially when their other games divisions actually dropped by almost 30%) is good news for them. Of course, the question they (and more specifically, Activision Blizzard) have to be wondering about is if the success can continue. If Blizzard can release a new expansion this year and hold off the coming threats in the MMO industry, they'll be looking at even bigger numbers in 2008. But that's a lot to ask-- there's no question Vivendi (and Activision) will come up with huge amounts of profit this year, but growth of this magnitude will be a tough hill to climb.
Early this year first heard, in a post-BC interview, that Blizzard planned on launching an expansion a year. Having another expansion out in January 2008 seemed like an incredibly loft goal, but this was Blizzard, and if they promised us release dates, that must mean they were really certain of them. However, it wasn't long before Blizzard started backpedeling on the idea of yearly expansions, clarifying that they only "wanted to try" to bring out yearly expansions.So here we are in December 2007, nearly a year from the launch of The Burning Crusade, with absolutely no idea when Wrath of the Lich King will launch. So today I'm asking you -- when do you think we'll see WotLK released?
Saupak has done about a good a job as I've ever seen of breaking down exactly when patch 2.3 might actually appear. There's a bumpy future ahead for the next two months-- it's full of holidays, vacations, and events, and so it'll be very interesting to see when Blizzard decides to insert Zul'Aman into Azeroth. Of course, the last patch dropped right when I was meant to be playing the just-released Halo 3, so there probably are no sacred cows-- Blizzard patches when they want to.
However, there are a few hits. We know the patch isn't going live today. The 13th and the 20th are out, because Blizz wants to give us notice, and Thanksgiving is right around the corner. That leaves the last week of November, and the first three weeks of December (very unlikely that Blizzard would drop a patch on Christmas or New Year's, because they've got to take a break sometime). Other than that, we're looking at the 8th, 15th, or 22nd of January.
Saupak's big bit of reasoning is that there were 168 days between 2.0 and 2.1, and 126 days between 2.1 and 2.2, so his guess is January 15th for the patch-- 105 days between 2.2 and 2.3. But remember that 2.2 was delayed so long because of the sound engine problems, and we don't have that with 2.3. And Zul'Aman is more or less done. So if I had to guess, I'd say we're looking at an early December patch-- either the 4th or the 11th (we've got to see an update sometime then anyway, for Feast of Winter's Veil). If we don't see it by then, then yes, my guess is that we're looking at January. Blizzard may try to squeeze it out before Thanksgiving, but I don't think that's likely. I do think they want to release it before Christmas, though-- and leave 2008 for the year of the Lich King.
There was a flood of patch 2.3 news yesterday, which almost certainly means the CMs hit some sort of release date for 2.3 info (not to mention that they said they'd talk about 2.3 after 2.2 released, though we didn't realize it would be the day after). At any rate, the CMs made a lot of people happy yesterday-- from numerous amazing class changes (Fear Ward! No Blind reagent!), to info about new Engineering flying mounts and daily PvP and cooking quests, 2.3 is looking pretty groovy all around. Finally, something to get excited about again! Sure, there's the next expansion, but it's tough looking forward to something Blizzard hasn't even designed yet.
And the best news is that patch 2.3 is likely to show up sooner rather than later. Eyonix, at the very beginning of the big Blue forum rampage yesterday, once again cited voice chat and the new sound system as the reason for the long wait on 2.2. It wasn't a class balance or content patch, it was a completely technical one. And that's why it's been three months since new content. It'll be interesting to see if Blizzard ever tries something technical like this again-- lots of players have asked about upgrading the graphical engine, but if their efforts on the sound engine are any indication, that's just too large an undertaking for them to handle while also being expected to release new content.
But hopefully 2.3 will make up for lost time-- while the coders were working on editing sound channels, hopefully the developers were thinking up new ways to make the classes more powerful and interesting. Of course they haven't announced any release dates (this is Blizzard, after all), but my guess is that we'll see 2.2.2 with a week or two, and 2.3 about a month or so after that, definitely before Christmas.
By now, it's almost a certainty-- not only did the PTR shut down last week, but Neth has almost confirmed on the forums that patch 2.2 is coming tomorrow morning. That means, I guess, that Amanda was right on our podcast a few weeks ago-- she was the only one who predicted it would show up this week, so kudos to her. Of course, it also messes up my plans for the week, unfortunately. I was planning to snipe Brutes and capture flags at least through Thursday, but now I may have to punctuate that with some voice chatting.
And besides voice chatting, what else are we seeing in this new patch we've waited so long for? The full patch notes are here for now (though they may be replaced with the 2.2.2 notes in the next day or so). Anti-AFK measures are showing up, as well as the Haste rebalancing. And most of the class stuff seems like bugfixes more or less. If you're a Druid, it'll be good to know that you can attack from further away while in Cat form, Shaman ankhs will now stack to ten (nice!) and Hunters with Raptor pets can now go out and learn Dash, but otherwise, it's all bugfixes-- some more harsh than others (the Six Demon Bag no longer benefits from spell damage, so bummer for that one).
But the thing that will really pull me away from Halo 3 this week is probably the simplest. Finally, my Orc male shoulders are returned to full size. Finally, after more than two months, I can walk around Orgrimmar with my head held up proudly, trapped between two huge masses of metal. See you tomorrow, 2.2!
Relmstein has posted a quick analysis of what he calls the "punctuated equilibrium" of WoW content patches. In evolutionary biology, there's a theory that species change not gradually over time, but in quick bursts of dynamic change. And Relmstein applies this idea to WoW's own population changes-- the playerbase seems to grow in quick leaps when brand new content is introduced, but slows down and even falls off when standard bugs are being fixed, or not much content is being patched.
What's really interesting, however, is that Relmstein then compares WoW's changes to the effects that content schedule has on other MMO releases. Lord of the Rings Online and Guild Wars (which are WoW's two worthy opponents) both released during downtime (after Burning Crusade and after the vanilla release, respectively). And on the other side of the spectrum, both Vanguard and Everquest 2 tried to go directly up against new WoW content, and, as Relmstein says, got steamrolled.
So looking towards the future, it's not hard to see what might happen. Wrath of the Lich King will make a big splash for sure, both bringing lots of players back, and maybe even bringing new players (who played Warcraft III and want to see Arthas) into the fold. Games like Age of Conan and Warhammer Online may try to go up against it, but it wouldn't be a good idea-- they'd be better off waiting until about a month after the expansion, when many players have reached 80, seen what they can see in Northrend, and Blizzard is confined to bugfixes and small content updates. Of course, a WoW content break isn't all these games need-- they still need to be good games by themselves. But placing themselves in this downtime between new content will give them a much better chance to woo more players away from Azeroth.
Our good friends over at Joystiq are reporting that when the 10th season DVD set of South Park drops on the 21st, a WoW trial disc will be included in the box.
Kind of a weird choice, considering that the game's portrayal in the Emmy-nominated show isn't exactly flattering (or, realistic, though it does look cool). The episode is even featured on the cover, bloated acne-scarred Cartman and all.
But you never know-- clearly Blizzard is looking for all kinds of ways to promote their game (I can't imagine what lengths they'll go to when the movie comes out in a few years), and maybe this, the mob of South Park DVD-buying fans, is just what they need to hit 10 million. You probably don't need a trial disc (they are available for free or cheap in many places already), but in case you want a copy of the season in which the kids save the world... of Warcraft, it's up on Amazon right now.
We posted a few days ago to tell you that the Fry's in Anaheim were having a midnight event for the launch of the Burning Crusade, and now we have official confirmation. Blizzard will be celebrating, selling, and signing copies at four California locations:
Fry's Fountain Valley (4500 copies available)
Fry's Anaheim (4500 copies available)
Fry's Sunnyvale (4500 copies available)
Universal Citywalk Gamestop/EB Games (1500 copies available)
Lining up at each of these locations begins at 6 AM on the 15th, and wristbands will be distributed to make sure you get your copy. More details, including store addresses, are available at Blizzard's page. I won't be making it out to my state of birth for this particular party, but I do plan on going to a midnight event at my local GameStop.
So which of you are lucky and dedicated enough to be attending one of these shindigs?
The push back to a January release was disappointing to say the least. And many forum posters have been speculating -- if it were pushed back once, couldn't it be pushed back again? Well, Nethaera says no. Replying to a post citing a January 16the release date (via a European press release), Nethaera says, "This is a solid date. It will not be pushed back." Considering Blizzard's usual reluctance to say anything concrete, I tend to believe them when they do. (Naivete, perhaps.)
Multiplesources are reporting, with little to no certainty (so it's time to get out that grain of salt), that Blizzard will delay the release of the expansion until early 2007. Blizzard is still saying a Q4 2006 release, but if past experience has shown us anything, they'll promise a 2006 release right up until they promise a January 2007 release. Considering the beta just started and lots of classes continue to show major changes (not to mention that the "original" release date-- rumored-- is just over a month away), this doesn't come as much of a surprise.
Of course, Vivendi may just play around with the meaning of the word "done." They'll certainly want to release the game before the holiday (especially considering there's not one but two major consoles being released this year) because there is money to be made. And it's not like there isn't precedent for releasing an MMORPG before it's polished, even for Blizzard-- anybody play a hunter when the game first came out?
But then again, you probably already know if you're buying this game or not-- an expansion isn't exactly the same as a regular release. They might not lose that many sales by waiting until January to put it out. And maybe all the holiday activity would get them lost in the mix-- a January release means they don't have to compete with all of the PS3 and Wii press and attention. Plus, look on the bright side-- if the rumors are true, you'll have more time to get to 60 or pick up that high PVP rank you want before the Burning Crusade hits the scene.
While we regularly get tips on the supposed release date of the game - no, we still don't know for certain. Amazon.com says October 15th, Best Buy says November 9th, and EB Games & GameStop both say November 28th. Why the conflicting dates? Well, Blizzard hasn't announced an official date, and it's harder to sell pre-orders without some release date - so all of these retailers are guessing in the dark. However, that doesn't mean one of them couldn't be right - Blizzard has said that they're aiming for a Q4 2006 release, which doesn't rule out much of the ongoing speculation. (Though the date could always slip, you know...)
It's that time again. Those of you who were around right before the Burning Crusade release might remember this time -- there are no new content patches before the next expansion, and we've got pretty much nothing to look forward to and nowhere to go before Wrath shows up and changes the world for good. Yes, there is a little more yet to discover at the Sunwell, but once we've seen that instance cleared out (Blizzard originally predicted about a month, and it seems like some players might be moving even faster than that), there'll be nothing left but the waiting.
Probably not. But if you did guess March 25th as the date 
Hortus, the spinning whirly jig wearing gnome, 
A few days ago 
There was a flood of 
By now, it's almost a certainty-- not only did 
Relmstein has posted a quick analysis of what he calls 
Our good friends over at Joystiq 
We 
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