Relmstein has posted a quick analysis of what he calls the "punctuated equilibrium" of WoW content patches. In evolutionary biology, there's a theory that species change not gradually over time, but in quick bursts of dynamic change. And Relmstein applies this idea to WoW's own population changes-- the playerbase seems to grow in quick leaps when brand new content is introduced, but slows down and even falls off when standard bugs are being fixed, or not much content is being patched.

What's really interesting, however, is that Relmstein then compares WoW's changes to the effects that content schedule has on other MMO releases. Lord of the Rings Online and Guild Wars (which are WoW's two worthy opponents) both released during downtime (after Burning Crusade and after the vanilla release, respectively). And on the other side of the spectrum, both Vanguard and Everquest 2 tried to go directly up against new WoW content, and, as Relmstein says, got steamrolled.

So looking towards the future, it's not hard to see what might happen. Wrath of the Lich King will make a big splash for sure, both bringing lots of players back, and maybe even bringing new players (who played Warcraft III and want to see Arthas) into the fold. Games like Age of Conan and Warhammer Online may try to go up against it, but it wouldn't be a good idea-- they'd be better off waiting until about a month after the expansion, when many players have reached 80, seen what they can see in Northrend, and Blizzard is confined to bugfixes and small content updates. Of course, a WoW content break isn't all these games need-- they still need to be good games by themselves. But placing themselves in this downtime between new content will give them a much better chance to woo more players away from Azeroth.

No, not a farmer in World of Warcraft gold farmer, but an Everquest 2 plat farmer. When EQ2 player Ogrebear received a tell from someone trying to sell him plat, he responded how he usually did -- with a threat. However, this particular plat seller actually responded to Ogrebear's tell, resulting in an interesting conversation that gives us a bit of insight into the industry.

So what does this farmer make? About $100 a month for seven hours work a day. (Ogrebear notes that that's 71 cents an hour if he only works five days a week.)

How many characters does this farmer go through in a week? Seven. But apparently it's profitable enough to keep at it.

What's this mean to those of us playing World of Warcraft? It means that Blizzard has an uphill battle ahead of them -- the farmers are making enough money to keep at this, despite bannings. And I've got to wonder if they can ever ban enough of them. Perhaps this explains Blizzard's recent push to resolve this issue via legal methods.

[Via PlayNoEvil]

Over at MMOG Nation Michael tries to answer the question of why Everquest 2 remains an underdog in the MMO market despite numerous updates and improvements to the game by SOE. And I've got to say I agree with his answer -- whether we're talking about Everquest 2, Lord of the Rings Online, or even Star Wars Galaxies (do people still play that game?). Despite how good other games may be, if all of your friends play World of Warcraft, I bet you're going to be playing World of Warcraft, too.

While MMOGCHART hasn't been updated in nearly a year now, their last set of data breaking down the number of active subscribers maintained by all of the major MMOs at the time showed World of Warcraft holding over 50% of the market, leaving a dozen games to split the remaining half of the market. And just looking at my circle of friends, all of them play World of Warcraft -- a couple of them play Everquest on the side, several of us play Lord of the Rings Online as well, and one dabbles in the world of Final Fantasy. But if I want to hang out with all of my friends, I've got to log on to World of Warcraft. So how's the next big thing going to break into the market when all of my friends -- and probably yours -- play WoW? I'm guessing it won't be able to simply be a Warcraft-alike, but be something so far beyond World of Warcraft today that it will draw in the same mass of subscribers WoW did in its initial release.

So what do you think the next big thing will be in the MMO market -- or is it so far off that we'll all just be playing a different Blizzard game by then? (I'm still waiting on World of Starcraft, thank you very much!