Relmstein has posted a quick analysis of what he calls the "punctuated equilibrium" of WoW content patches. In evolutionary biology, there's a theory that species change not gradually over time, but in quick bursts of dynamic change. And Relmstein applies this idea to WoW's own population changes-- the playerbase seems to grow in quick leaps when brand new content is introduced, but slows down and even falls off when standard bugs are being fixed, or not much content is being patched.What's really interesting, however, is that Relmstein then compares WoW's changes to the effects that content schedule has on other MMO releases. Lord of the Rings Online and Guild Wars (which are WoW's two worthy opponents) both released during downtime (after Burning Crusade and after the vanilla release, respectively). And on the other side of the spectrum, both Vanguard and Everquest 2 tried to go directly up against new WoW content, and, as Relmstein says, got steamrolled.
So looking towards the future, it's not hard to see what might happen. Wrath of the Lich King will make a big splash for sure, both bringing lots of players back, and maybe even bringing new players (who played Warcraft III and want to see Arthas) into the fold. Games like Age of Conan and Warhammer Online may try to go up against it, but it wouldn't be a good idea-- they'd be better off waiting until about a month after the expansion, when many players have reached 80, seen what they can see in Northrend, and Blizzard is confined to bugfixes and small content updates. Of course, a WoW content break isn't all these games need-- they still need to be good games by themselves. But placing themselves in this downtime between new content will give them a much better chance to woo more players away from Azeroth.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-13-2007 @ 2:47PM
Matthew Savoy said...
Now I'm not one to normally pile on WoW. I started with it during the beta, but I'm really having a hard time holding on until WotLK. Why?
I can't raid.
I do PvP in both BGs and Arenas, I have my epic flying mounts (Netherdrake, etc) and all that I really have left to do that I can do on my time is grind rep.
That's about it.
Sure, Wrath will introduce new items, zones, levels, but ultimately its going to end up being just a reskin of old ideas: level to 80, start quests to get new-uber gear and then go grind/pvp/raid.
Heck, even if I could raid, I'd have a hard time staying. I've done it. But raiding and doing the same thing three to five nights a week... what exactly is the draw here?
That's what WoW needs to look at. I think the first MMO to figure out how to fix the "stagnation" is the one which will dethrone WoW.
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9-13-2007 @ 2:50PM
Dave said...
I'd be willing to bet that Blizzard has every intention of waiting until Warhammer announces their release date to make plans for their release. If they were smart, they'd put out the expansion approximately 1 months or 2 weeks before Warhammer ships, OR the final pre-expansion patch (like the 2.0 pre-expansion patch) a month before or something like that. Something significant to keep people in WoW and working towards new goals. I think the 2.0 patch is when a lot of people picked the game back up that had fallen off, even though they weren't raiding.
It seems like a "first quarter 2008" release is most likely for the expansion, so regardless if Warhammer continues on their predicted 1Q 08 release, it'll definitely be a battle.
I personally don't think Age of Conan will do much. It'll be a new SWG honestly, since you're existing in a bubble of storyline and can't actually affect or interact with the main Conan story. (if anyone even knows it... )
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9-13-2007 @ 2:55PM
Leviathon said...
If you think the expansion will be out early next year then I guess you cna keep dreaming :p Blizzard has no reason to be scared of Warhammer and is not going to rush WotLK to compete with its release. The Sunwell Plateau probably won't even be out till sometime in Q1-Q2 next year with the alpha/beta for the expansion starting at the earliest around June.
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9-13-2007 @ 3:00PM
Janessriel said...
The concept makes sense, it's been done in movies for years now. Look at Transformers, once it "claimed" the July 4th weekend, every other movie stayed away. Even now, the new Iron Man has a date, Indiana Jones has a date and even Watchmen, which literally started filming a few days ago, already has a release date of March '09.
So the idea of not coming out with a competitor isn't new (even videogames have this happen, is anything but Halo 3 coming out at the end of this month?) but the idea of peaks and valleys for an ongoing game is new and interesting. The time investment for games like this are different so timing is different. A movie is only 2 hours, where an MMO can take up years.
Scheduling games "around" WoW shows the sheer size of this game.
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9-14-2007 @ 6:38AM
Corsair said...
Why doesnt anyone ever mention Hellgate London? I don't see Warhammer as a competitor at all since its basically a Wow copy. Its not interesting to go from WoW to Warhammer. you'll be playing WoW all over again. Now Hellgate London on the other hand?... Coming out in November THAT will have a much better chance against WoW especially because the next expension is so far away
There will be a good chance of a whole lot players going that way and not coming back because they'll still be enjoying the whole new and different MMO of HGL.
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9-14-2007 @ 11:55AM
Relmstein said...
The biggest thing going for Hellgate London will be that its base game is free and only the online portion requires a subscription. This should enable it to avoid going the way of Auto Assault. Tabula Rasa probably should have been made the same way with a portion of the game being free to play offline and only the actual MMO part being subscription based.
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